Crypto punters are giving Donald Trump a 17% chance of going to jail before the U.S. presidential election in November, odds on predictions application Polymarket show.
Trump was found guilty on Thursday by a New York jury on all 34 counts. He was accused of falsifying business records, becoming the first former president to be convicted in U.S. courts. Trump pleaded not guilty and said he will “keep fighting until the end,” according to the BBC.
Data shows that a market for “Trump in jail before election day?” saw increased buying and selling activity on Friday. The market was created in January and has racked up $900,000 in bets from crypto users.
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(Polymarket)
The market will resolve to “Yes” if Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison between Jan. 5 and 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov. 5. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.”
As of European morning hours, the odds of “Yes” are selling at 17 cents and “No” are at 85 cents. When it ends, the correct outcome will be worth $1. (The total may not add up to 100 at Polymarket due to market uncertainty and other price factors.)
The chances of Trump actually going to jail before the election remain slim, Reuters reported.
In Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, the odds of Trump becoming president dropped 2 percentage points to 54% on Thursday. President Joe Biden’s chances grew to 40% from 38%.
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